Mindset

Let me be clear about the way I view our future and why I consider myself a survivalist... and for that matter, what I think of when I use a word like "survivalist."

The Future

Succinctly put, it's bleak. We've seen two million jobs evaporate this last year alone. Our manufacturing base is in serious trouble. Banks are clamming up with the credit and all our economy does is consume, consume, consume. We make nothing.

Politicians are more interested in scoring short term political victories than laying the foundation for long term sustainability and growth. The term "mortgaging our children's future" is such a cliche these days that the poignant image it is meant to convey is utterly lost. In short, politicians are long on gathering power und to themselves, and very short on actual, real leadership.

Our leaders, be they corporate or government, are no longer expected to produce results. They are bailed out or golden parachuted or pardoned when they fail or even commit criminal acts. There is no accountability. The meritocracy that once made this nation great is no longer. Our democratic ideals are dying out in favor of a nouveau nobility. Kennedys, Clintons, Bushes, and more.

Our executives in the governmental realm behave more like kings than officers of the public trust. Our corporate chiefs act like spoiled children of nobility who are given a small fiefdom to run... often into the ground. Corporate boards are comprised of executives from other, often competing, companies. One CEO may have a board whose members are CEOs at companies whose boards on which they themselves serve. Can anyone say mutual masturbation?

Our leaders are modern day robber barons; thieves, confidence men, and thugs. I mean that with no poetry and in all ways literally. We have yet to see the Obama Administration in action, of course. While I am allowing myself to hope a bit, I know history too well to get my hopes too high. Washington has a way of changing those who mean to come to town and root out the rotten core of our government.

The momentum of this financial crisis has not slowed one bit. No one talks about this, but the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are as much to blame for our financial problems as the mortgage crisis. The defecits we run (roughly $400 billion a year for the last few years) do not count the cost of the wars we are engaged in. They are funded with emergency supplemental spending bills - off books. The true defecits we have been running are north of half a trillion dollars a year.

Do you hear that sound? It sounds like a giant toilet flushing... and we're on our way out with the crap.

"Survivalist"

This word is oft maligned as meaning "gun nut", "militia freak", "racial supremacist", "radical", or "wingnut." This is not what the word means to most of the community.

While I am not a prominent member of the survivalist community, I do consider myself a survivalist. To me the word "survivalism" means, in its most basic form, "preparedness." So to be a survivalist means to be someone who is prepared or who strives to be prepared for the day when the trucks stop delivering me my food and when the lights go out.

To be honest, no one can foresee exactly what shape the coming gridcrash will take. Will the markets melt down and banks fail causing currencies around the globe to go into a hyper-deflationary spiral? Will there be an attack on Washington which will cause a lapse in centralized authority leading to riots born of panic? Or will budget shortfalls in the fed, state, and local levels coupled with high unemployment cause government to essentially be ineffective and overwhelmed leading to defacto anarchy? We saw how well the fed responded to a disaster like Katrina. Or, on the radical end of the spectrum, will a bug escape some Army lab and wipe out 90% of the world a la Stephen King's The Stand (minus the supernatural stuff)?

The point of the last paragraph is to say that there's no telling how, or even if, the shit will truly hit the fan. How does that influence the survivalist's mindset? I can't speak for others, but for me it means having a flexible, generalized plan that can handle as many eventualities as possible. It means learning a whole metric ass ton of information on the basics:

• Prioritization - What must you have? What can you do without if you had to? What do you do first?
• Water - Treatment and sourcing
• First Aid - Not bleeding to death
• Growing and Storing Food - Gardening, composting, and food preservation
• Hunting - When the supermarket runs out of meat, you'll need to hunt, kill, and prepare game of some sort. This will be especially important years when your garden's yield is less than expected
• Sanitation - Getting rid of waste and possibly using it as compost
• Energy Engineering - When the lights go out, can you get them back on? Can you setup a wind turbine? Could you construct one? How about biodiesel? A tractor would make that farm way more productive...
• Outdoorsmanship - If you had to spend a night outdoors in the winter, could you? How about a week? A month?
• Gunsmithing and Marksmanship - Fixing, cleaning, and shooting guns
• Construction - If a tree falls on your roof and knocks a hole in it, could you repair it?
• Brewing - Making your own beer, because what the hell is life without beer?

Just think of all the stuff you call on others to do. Do you have even the slightest clue how to do that yourself? Some things will just go away. For most, electricity will simply be gone or could be unreliable, at best. How will you preserve your food without the handy-dandy refrigerator?

Not too long ago we knew how to take care of ourselves. My grandparents canned food from their garden and so did my father and mother. They didn't do it because they were poor and had to, either. To the contrary, my grandparents and parents were on the more afluent side of the middle class. Our great-grandparents didn't have refrigerators and it was a way of life for them to grow food and preserve it themselves.

In hard times, can you trust the cop who hasn't been paid in two months? They may be in as tough or tougher a bind than you are (more likely the latter). They are just like you except they have authority and a gun. I have to admit, if my family were hurting and I had the gun and authority, I'd be sorely tempted to use it to my family's advantage.

A survivalist, in short, does not take for granted the notion that the cushy comforts of modern life will always be there. In many ways, a survivalist is a rationalist. Look at our economy. Unsustainable and obviously broken on a fundamental level. Look at our energy consumption habits. Unsustainable and terrible for our environment. Look at our modern society. Stupid, lazy, and isolated with no signs of improvement. Look at our leadership. Incompetent and corrupt.

Who wouldn't be concerned? Who wouldn't look at all of that and wonder when we'll reach the tipping point which brings it all crashing down? A survivalist is someone who sees the big picture and resolves to not be a victim. A survivalist may be your savior one day...

Recession Finally Admitted by the Fed

Finally there are rumblings from Washington that seem to admit to a recession. I think the American people have been tuned into the reality of an economic downturn for quite some time.

As of now, the Dow is down another 502 points. The other day it was up by around 900, but I knew that was mere volatility. This downturn won't stop until the actual fundamentals of the world economy are repaired.

The U.S. especially needs to put its economic house in order. We need to start making things again. That is what is fundamentally at the core of our floundering economy - we don't make anything any more. We make money off of money. We flip houses. We use credit.

There are many things that have gone awry, don't get me wrong. However, increasing manufacturing jobs in America would have the effect of decreasing unemployment, putting more money in the pocket of Americans. Two thirds of our economy is based upon consumer spending.

I think retail stores are going to take a major hit this Christmas. Americans are losing their jobs, their homes, and their confidence. Watch the stock market in late December and early January. Look for a big drop when the retail numbers prove to be abysmal.

I think the turnaround here will take a good long time. I think Americans have been shocked into waking up from a credit card coma. Spending will slow. Savings will increase. Less cheap crap will be bought in stores. Bad news for China, really.

If Americans are smart and we have good leadership we can come through this better and stronger. If the focus is on technology and research into alternative energy we have a chance. If America leads the way with a whole new fleet of battery driven and alternatively fueled cars we can again be the auto manufacturer of the world. If we invest in infrastructure like schools, roads, a new solar and wind electrical grid, and college we can again become competitive.

If our leaders have the political will to raise taxes we might be okay. If we are honest with ourselves then we see that raising taxes is unavoidable if we are to address our national debt and other needs simultaneously. If Americans can change their ways and refrain from spending what they don't have then each of us may yet find economic salvation.

If we hold our leaders accountable on the issues that matter to all of us we can save ourselves from ourselves. Issues like education, roads, jobs, a stagnating economy, and the environment are all interrelated and can all be solved on a single line of attack.

The simplest answer is usually the best answer. I usually denounce Occum's Razor as a means for oversimplification of complicated issues and ideas. In this case, however it is right on.

Problems like crumbling roads, vaporizing jobs and a worsening environment can all be solved by investing in green technology and providing government subsidies for green infrastructure projects. This would lay the foundation for jobs and a revitalized economy. It would allow us to export this technology and put America back on the economic map as a producer and exporter rather than an importer and borrower.

More Americans with good jobs boosts consumer confidence and provides the fuel for two thirds of our economy (consumer spending). More good jobs means a larger tax base. Government subsidies for technology research means many many small businesses getting startup money from either the government or venture capitalists.

And to cement the continued growth of this new economy you invest in education. A smart workforce is an efficient and innovative workforce. You also ensure this new boom is sustainable with massive infrastructure investment in both existing and new techologies (as they come online). Improve roads and build a new sustainable electrical grid. This will create jobs in and of itself as well - this will feed back into the positive cycle by putting more money in the pockets of Americans and growing the middle class.

That is a lot of "ifs." Believe me, I am aware of that fact. Every pay period I am putting a little bit towards survival gear and supplies. I am trying to hope for the best, but I am planning for the worst without a doubt.

EDIT: At close of trading today the Dow was down 733 pts.

The Might and the Majesty

My wife and two of my kids went to D.C. this weekend. We took Amtrack up and walked everywhere we wanted to go. During our stay we went to the Natural History Museum (dinosaurs!), the Washington Monument, and the Carousel on the Mall. Doesn't sound like much to do for an entire weekend?

Ha! You try doing all that with a 14 month old and a 4 year old on foot!

I haven't been to D.C. in a while, but what never ceases to amaze me is the majesty of the place. The train station, Union Station, is gigantic. It's as big as many major airports. The main lobby is beatiful tile floor with large statues all around. The exterior of the building is also quite impressive, with massive stone columns and granite everywhere.

Much of D.C. is built this way. All sorts of federal office buildings all over the city were built with a fortune of granite. And these buildings are nothing special - they're just office buildings. The curbs in DC are granite, for Pete's sake! Then toss the Capitol building in the mix along with all of the monuments and memorials and you have a city built to impress.

Of course this is all by design. For its day I'm sure Rome was much, much more impressive than D.C. There are plenty of other majestic sites in other cities all over the world today. Back in the heyday of Rome this was not the case. Rome was the largest city in the world and had public buildings and spaces unrivaled. The Circus Maximus and the Colliseum would be impressive structures even if they were built today.

It's no coincidence that there are columns a-plenty in D.C. and stone all over everything. Nothing screams permanence like expensive, heavy stone. The Egyptians knew it, the Greeks knew it, the Romans knew it. D.C. is intentionally built to evoke images of glory and empire and permanence.

But those images are all illusions, for nothing is permanent. The structures still stand in many cases, but the civilizations and vibrant life that once filled them are long gone. Egypt was swept away as an independent power by the Greeks, the Greeks by the Romans, and the Romans by a series of barbarian tribes. The Byzantine East survived for a millenium longer, but even they fell to Ottoman Turks eventually.

At least these ancient civilizations fell to invaders. We will probably fall to our own stupidity and corruption without the benefit of foreign aggression. History buffs, please spare me the lecture. I know that each of these civilizations were weakened by internal strife and corruption which set the stage for their conquest from without. I was merely pointing out that we won't even need that push from an external force in order for us to fall over.

Rome and Egypt and Greece never had to deal with a shifting climate and a population addicted to a cheap energy source which made life obscenely easy. They never had to deal with fundamentally dwindling resources with no frontiers left to colonize and exploit. There's no release valve for the pressures we are under today.

Where can you send excess population to go live now? The North Pole? When we run out of food or water where can we go to get more? Ummm... Mars? When the oil runs out and petroleum-based fertilizers aren't available to super-charge our soil any more, how do we feed our 7 billion person population?

Am I crazy? I hope so.

Atlanta doesn't think so. They're in a tough way down there. Maybe a foreshadowing of things to come? Take a look at Lake Allatoona, one of the major water sources down there.

What I'm saying is that no army can stop a drought. No bomber can make crops grow. Our military can't save us like it saved the Egyptians and the Romans and the Greeks for so long. Figthing this enemy takes a lot more smarts and cooperation than anything the ancients faced.

I'm just wondering if we're up to it.

Preparing for the Squeeze

It's all going to hell and probably faster than even I would like to consider. I'm the kind of guy with his eyes open, too. I just don't see anything encouraging.

The fundamentals are all screwed. We're mismanaging the land, our water, global warming, our national defense, our infrastructure, our education, and our economic base.

Every place I've ever worked has featured multiple (not just one, but multiple) managers with college degrees that were barely literate. These guys made much more money than I did and they wrote unintelligible emails. Emails that my ten year old daughter would have been embarrassed to send.

I'm not talking about a misspelling here and there. Hell, we all do that (although with spell checking I can't imagine why). I mean that these guys wrote emails that featured strings of alphanumeric characters which bore no resemblance to complete thoughts, let alone sentences. These are managers! Managers! They are supposedly our leaders and examples.

I don't need to get into the environmental stuff. At this point if you aren't on board with this notion you're an imbecile or you're on Chevron's payroll.

Everyone remembers the bridge that collapsed out of the blue in Minnesota and the tunnel collapse in Boston. Now there are cranes collapsing in New York. I read this Popular Mechanics article that made my toes curl. Popular Mechanics tries to look at this crisis in the best light possible, citing technology as our possible savior. I have to say that it takes will and people and dollars to apply technology. Where is the will and where are the dollars that will bring the people who will apply the technology?

I don't see them.

A staggering statistic from that article:

"One-quarter of the 599,893 bridges in the United States have structural problems or outdated designs."

That's 149,973 bridges in need of replacement or repairs. I could tick off three in my hometown alone that make me nervous. And that's just the ones I've noticed casually passing them by.

On national defense - every source from within the military will tell you our military is at its lowest state of readiness since before WW II (back when we basically had no military). Regardless of where you stand on why we got into Iraq or if we should have or if the public was lied to in the lead up there is one fact that stands undeniable:

Our military and our nation are being bled dry in Iraq. We are losing the lives of our valiant men and women in uniform and for what? For freedom and democracy in Iraq? Don't make me laugh. An altruistic invasion to spread democracy at bayonet-point? Really?

People keep comparing Iraq to Vietnam and I tell them they're wrong. While there are some similarities to America's involvement in Vietnam, our struggle in Iraq is much more like the Soviet Union's struggle in Afghanistan which started in 1979.

The Soviets invaded Afghanistan for murky reasons and ended up running 40 divisions through that meat grinder. This is what defeated the Soviets, not Reagan or Bush the Elder. The Soviets were economically and thus militarily ruined in Afghanistan due to a low grade insurgency like the one we're experiencing in Iraq and the one the French experienced in Algeria in the late 50's and early 60's.

We're bleeding out in Iraq. Our budget has massive defecits and here's the kicker, kids:

We aren't even counting the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan into the regular budget. They've been entirely funded by emergency supplemental spending which isn't factored into the budget and therefore wouldn't show up in any deficit numbers.

In short, as bad as you think the nation's budgetary crisis is - it is in fact much, much worse.

That is why, no matter what you think about our nation's War on Terror, we must withdrawl from Iraq. We simply cannot afford to continue. Despite what you think about our nation's treasury it is not a limitless treasure trove. If it were only empty there might be some hope.

Sadly our treasury is full to the rafters. It is not full with money or gold or reserves of any kind. No, our treasury is full of debt. Our treasury is, as of this moment, so bankrupt that only the continued denial of this obvious reality on the part of our creditors allows us to keep up our illusions of power and wealth. We are less than poor. We are absolutely destitute.

With no manufacturing base left we stand little hope of reversing this trend. During the Great Depression we were still a mighty manufacturing nation - our factories just stood silent, all full of potential jobs. Now these factories in many cases have literally been packaged up and shipped overseas. They simply aren't present any more.

We can't all work in high end service jobs like information technology. Somebody, somewhere has to actually make something in order for our economy to function. This isn't happening.

The thing that really scares me is this - it may be coming faster than I can prepare for it. I may not be able to complete my preparations for these hard times to come before they arrive.

Intro

A little background on me to start with, eh? As of this post I am 35 years old and I live in Charlottesville, Virginia. I am a male IT professional (programmer, DBA, project manager, application support engineer, you name it!) who works a full time job here in town. I am a married father of four with kids ranging from 1 to 13 years of age. My wife also holds down a full time IT job. You could say we're a middle class geek family living the American Dream.

Despite my relative good fortune, I have always sensed that something was wrong with modern industrial society. Even before I would have known what a term like modern industrial society meant I could see that there was a sickness that seemed to be everywhere. I have always felt that something just isn't right.

So many things about the lifestyle we live in the western world are both unsustainable and unjust. The destruction we have wreaked upon the planet has, to date, been a mere dress rehearsal. With nations such as China and India coming online the slide will only gain in momentum. The addition of these two nations to the list of modern industrial powers will nearly triple the portion of the planet's population that lives under the umbrella of industrial capitalist consumerism.

I mention all of this not because I'm some communist or eco-terrorist. I state these simple facts because it is painfully obvious that this trend cannot continue unabated. We have already passed Peak Oil, the point where planetary oil production has reached its maximum level. With increased demand coming from India and China the rate of depletion of the remaining 50% of world oil reserves will far outstrip the rate at which the first 50% was consumed.

"What about green technologies?" you say.

I fear it may be too little too late. Over the course of the coming entries we will discuss this point and many more in greater detail.

I am a realistic optimist. That is to say I hope for the best but plan for the worst. Do I want this cushy lifestyle to go by the wayside? Do I want there to be chaos and civil unrest? Do I want there to be global turmoil and starvation? Of course not.

Do I think that it may happen? Do I think that maybe we woke up to the warning signs too late and that some people will live in denial until the lights go out? Yep.

I do all of the responsible things that I can think of, such as:

1. Recycle everything that my locality will accept (cans, paper, cardboard, plastic, & glass)


2. Compost


3. Use only CF bulbs in my home


4. Walk to work


5. Drive compact sedans when I do drive


6. Insulate my hot water heater


7. Use low-flow shower heads


8. Wash laundry only in cold water


9. Eat a mainly vegetarian diet


10. Replace appliances with energy efficient models


11. Shop local and organic as absolutely much as possible


12. Minimize money spent in the big box stores

There's more - that's all that immediately pops into mind. And believe me, I know there's more I could do (please respond with any suggestions!). The point is, despite the fact that I am not nearly as active in conservation as I could be I am pretty sure I do a whole hell of a lot more than most people.

Most Americans drive alone in their giant SUV to work, eat lunch at some restaurant that probably got its food shipped in from a long supply chain touching all corners of the globe, go home to a positively frigid home with the AC cranked, buy disposable everything from Wal-Mart (made in China with near-slave labor, no doubt), and then vote against every initiative that may help reverse climate change because it has a slight chance to impact their lifestyle.

The fact is that people are lazy by nature. Why change anything if the wolves aren't baying at your door? The problems is that the wolves are baying at your door. You just can't hear them because your TV is on too loudly.

Well I can hear them, people. I'm not a gun nut or militia freak. I'm just like you. I get up and go to work every day to make a better life for me and my family. I love my family just like you do. I have friends and hobbies. Despite my relative normalcy I am preparing for a general collapse of the system.

In future entries I'll talk a lot more about the details of my preparations, the things I see happening in the world that concern me, and as I learn them I will pass along survival tricks and tips to you. Please check out the Required Reading section on the right-hand side of the page if you want to get a decent list of material germaine to the subjects we'll discuss.